Is past behaviour the best predictor of future behaviour?

The purpose of this post is to look back at UFO history to explore whether "past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour" concerning the forthcoming UAP report by the UAP Task Force (UAPTF). 

Can looking at how the US government has handled UFOs before, like with "Project Blue Book," help us understand what the UAPTF report will say?

Further down, I will explore that question with the help of two declassified National Security Agency documents (see the links at the very end of this post). But first, some background to the purpose of this post.

Background

Most people who have studied the literature on the UFO phenomenon, or subject, know that the current interest in and serious concern over the UFO issue by the US government (USG) is nothing new. Neither is the more serious attention on UFOs/UAP from the mainstream media. One of many examples is the Washington Post article from 19 January 1979. 

Some in the ufo community see the record of how the USG has dealt with the UFO issue in the past (again, think "Project Blue Book" or the "Condon Report") as an almost certain predictor of how current events will end. Others in the ufo community are more optimistic and perhaps, in some cases, naive about how the recent UFO "revival" will evolve ("full Disclosure!"). 

Will the forthcoming report by the UAPTF turn out to be a "Project Blue Book 2.0", or will its outcome be more desirable from a transparency perspective? In my opinion, that question remains open. At the same time, I believe we have reasons for cautious optimism, which I will expand on in a moment.

Professor Kevin Knuth on why the USS Nimitz "Tic Tac" encounter was not a secret military test

"Kevin Knuth on UFOs, Nimitz / Tic Tac video, and a new kind of Theory of Everything" Published on the YouTube channel Theories of Everything with Curt Jaimungal on April 13, 2021. Duration: 2:30:57.

Kevin Knuth is a Professor of physics at the University of Albany, a former NASA scientist, and the Editor-In-Chief of the Entropy journal. He has a unique Theory of Everything called Influence Theory.

First, I recommend you to look at the links in the video description of this episode on Mr. Jaimungal's YouTube channel. You can find a few of those interesting and useful links to Professor Knuth's research on the UFO phenomenon and work in physics below: 

Papers:

• Estimating Flight Characteristics of Anomalous Unidentified Aerial Vehicles: https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/21/10/939
• An Introduction to Influence Theory: Kinematics and Dynamics: https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.09618

Presentation:

• Knuth's presentation delineating interstellar space travel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXswO... (In the conversation with Mr. Jaimungal, Professor Knuth summarizes his fascinating hypothesis on "nomadic" space travelling civilisations, starting around the 52 min mark).

Also, in the video description of this interview, or conversation, with guest Kevin Knuth, you can find timestamps of what and when topics are covered during the conversation. Roughly speaking, the first half of the 2 hours and 30 minutes is about Professor Knuth's interest in and research of the UFO phenomenon. The second half is about his scientific work and career as a physicist. Even for a non-scientist like myself, the second half is highly interesting and is, as I understand it, relevant to better understand the UFO phenomenon.

Why post this conversation between Mr Jaimungal and Professor Knuth? There are several reasons, but my main reason is that I think what Professor Knuth says about the USS Nimitz "Tic Tac" encounter in 2004 is important to keep in my mind, especially since the recent video release of a "pyramid-shaped" flying object (actually, several objects, if objects at all). In the latter case, we do not have any or very little data on what is going on (some argue that the video has significant data to reveal if you know what to look for, and they may be right). In the former case, Knuth and his colleagues at the Scientific Coalition of UAP Studies (SCU) have analysed and published a paper on (see above: the first link under "Papers"). 

Strange US Navy UAP incidents in July of 2019 raises pressing questions

 An excellent UAP investigation and article by Adam Kehoe and Marc Cecotti for The Drive/The War Zone. Their article is from March 23, 2021, and you can read it at this link: 

• https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39913/multiple-destroyers-were-swarmed-by-mysterious-drones-off-california-over-numerous-nights

In the article's first paragraph, the authors write what the article is about:

[I]n July of 2019, a truly bizarre series of events unfolded around California’s Channel Islands. Over a number of days, groups of unidentified aircraft, which the U.S. Navy simply refers to as ‘drones’ or 'UAVs,' pursued that service's vessels, prompting a high-level investigation.

Then what follows is Kehoe and Cecotti's own investigation into the details of the bizarre series of "UAV" incidents in July 2019. The details come largely from the authors' Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests.

My purpose with this post is mainly to share the excellent article in question, and also to make a few and short comments about the "UAV" incidents as described in the article.

Former Director of National Intelligence wants more transparency on the UFO/UAP issue

 

"Former Director of National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe, on UFOs". Uploaded on The Black Vault Originals' Youtube channel, March 21 2021. Duration: 14:47 minutes.

SHOW NOTES 

----------------------- 

o Full FoxNews Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIe3j...​ 

o Marco Rubio on UFOs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhtRY...​ 

o Former CIA Director John Brennan on UFOs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEjNO...

​
Another former high ranking US governmental official recently made some interesting statements about the UFO/UAP issue on Fox News. I'm not a fan of Fox News. At the same time, when it comes to serious coverage of the UFO/UAP subject, the channel has (unfortunately) been one of the best these last couple of three years.

In the video, John Greenewald Jr. talks about John Ratcliffe's UFO/UAP comments made during a Fox News interview. I mostly agree with Greenewald's points about the key things to consider in Ratcliffe's open and possibly sincere comments on what the US military and intelligence agencies know about UFOs/UAPs. 

Or perhaps more correctly, what they do not know about UFOs/UAPs? Further below, I'll say more about Greenewald's comments and share my thoughts on some of Ratcliffe's statements.

The Aguadilla UFO Incident: Data for scientists to examine

"Aguadilla UFO Incident - George Knapp - Mystery Wire." Published on Mystery Wire´s Youtube channel on February 12 2021. Duration: 22:02 minutes.

https://www.mysterywire.com/ufo/aguad...​ Aguadilla UFO Incident - George Knapp talks with UFOlogist Rich Hoffman about this sighting and the video recorded by the U.S. government.

The video clip summarises a longer interview with Mr Rich Hoffman about the Aguadilla UFO case. You can find part one of that longer interview here. If you are not familiar with the Aguadilla UFO case, then you should look into it. I find it more compelling regarding data than the Tic Tac UFO case. 

You can find the full report on the Aguadilla UFO case, which Mr George Knapp and Hoffman refer to in the interview, on the Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies (SCU) website. (Click on the link and scroll down to the second full report).

You can learn more about Hoffman on SCU's website or hear the first part of the interview, so I won't go into detail here. I will also not comment on what the video clip above says about the Aguadilla UFO incident, except for: