How will official transparency progress?

 

Introduction

What are the plausible developments of what seems to be a genuine openness about UFOs/UAP from, particularly, the U.S. Government (USG)?

In the following, I am going to give some plausible answers to that question. Or speculate on the question, if you will, because I do not have any facts to argue with certainty for any of the scenarios presented below.

The reader should note that my presupposition is that a disclosure process, or greater official transparency, about the physical and technological aspect of UFOs/UAP, is, in fact, ongoing since late 2017. I also think the disclosure, or whatever the right term, is benign at this point in time. Not everyone in the ufo community agrees with my assessment. But I have chosen not to go into the different views and arguments on the question "disclosure or not?" or "disclosure or Psyop?" in this text. 

For now, I can say that even if the disclosure/transparency is benign and genuine, it does not mean that official channels and authorities will not control the flow of information to the public. That is neither surprising nor necessarily suspicious. There are, of course, limits to the extent of control that government officials can exert. 

I started to write this text before ufo historian and author Mr Richard Dolan made his show "The End of UFO Disclosure?" on his YouTube channel (live-streamed on August 19, 2020). Even though I disagree with Mr Dolan's pessimistic or realistic outlook on the future of disclosure, I think he raises some relevant points and questions in his analysis from August 19, 2020. 

I will come back to Mr Dolan's video further down, but now to my thoughts on plausible scenarios to the question mentioned at the beginning of this text. 

The fundamental problem with offering any certain answers to the question of how disclosure/transparency may progress is the following:

The development of disclosure (or greater transparency) depends mainly on what the USG knows about the UFO phenomenon besides UFOs/UAP not belonging to any nation on Earth. 

• So, the central question is: What does the USG actually know about the UFO phenomenon? (There is another way to frame the question: "what can the USG know about the UFO phenomenon?" but that would require a different text to answer than this one.). 

Obviously, the potential disclosure developments depend on many other factors than what the USG knows about the UFO phenomenon. For instance, Mr Dolan argues in the video that tighter governmental and corporate control over people's lives (free speech, thought, behaviour, etc.) and over mainstream/social media can put a stop to disclosure. That is a plausible scenario.

What I want to focus on here, however, is mainly on the question of plausible scenarios (see scenarios I - IV below) for the development of greater official transparency and how that question correlates with what kind of knowledge the USG has about the UFO phenomenon.

Since it seems like the USG is leading disclosure/greater transparency, I will focus on what the USG knows about the UFO phenomenon. Depending on what the USG knows about UFOs/UAP, the ongoing disclosure process can develop differently: it can slow down, it can pick up speed, it can be put on pause. Or disclosure/transparency can move behind closed doors again. Or it can progress as it has been doing these last three years: carefully, selectively, and slowly (well, "slow" is a relative term). 

Now, let us look at some plausible developments of greater official transparency of the UFO phenomenon. 

Scenario I

I think the best thing for the progress of the disclosure process would be if the USG did not know much more about the UFO phenomenon than it is acknowledging at the moment. I am certain the USG has more data that shows that some UFOs/UAP are not man made. In other words, the USG knows what some UFOs/UAP are not. Of course, that is just what the USG has acknowledged this far. 

Why would this scenario be the best for disclosure? For one, it would mean that the USG needs help from, for instance, the scientific community to figure out the UFO issue. Second, for the scientific community to get involved seriously, there would need to be more credible and interesting data made public. So, the USG will have no choice but to release more credible data on UFOs/UAP. 

To solve the UFO issue, it would probably take a project similar in scale and scope as the "Manhattan Project." You would need the sharpest brains to come together, to cooperate, to debate, and so on. I do not think that a military UFO project like the "Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force" (UAPTF) is sufficient to further understand the nature and intent of UFOs/UAP. The US Department of Defense (DoD) will need help from the outside to get a clearer picture of the UFO issue. 

The last part should indicate that the USG is not afraid to invite help from the outside to stumble upon alleged illegal UFO programs or ET bodies. In other words, the USG has no such secrets to protect. One could argue that a large part of the USG is unaware of such secrets, but I would ask people in the different oversight committees of military budgets if that is a probable argument. I am quite sure that the answer would be no. 

Third, this scenario would, I believe, show that other governments do not know more about UFOs/UAP than the USG. If other governments know more, why would the USG publicly show its vulnerability to UAP incursions over nuclear weapon bases? To me, that seems counter-intuitive. If true, then this global ignorance about UFOs/UAP could (and should!) open up for a worldwide effort to understand who/what is behind some of these UFOs. 

So, if this scenario is true, then the disclosure process will probably pick up speed soon (1 to 3 years from now). More data (military videos and witnesses, etc.) will be forthcoming from the DoD, mainstream media will continue to cover the UFO issue, and, hopefully, not only report but actually investigate. A bonus in this scenario, and during the time span of 1 to 3 years from now, would be congressional hearings. 

Scenario I is a "clean" one. Besides the 7 decades of official denial and ridicule (which is a big deal), there are no illegal UFO programs to be dealt with and no people in those illegal programs to protect and/or prosecute. The disclosure process will be less complicated and time-consuming if there are no UFO back-engineering programs. 

In short, the less that the USG knows about UFOs/UAP, the better for disclosure/greater transparency.

Scenario II

Similar to scenario I, but with a more complicated and unpredictable disclosure process. We may see "pauses" in publicly released information on UFOs/UAP because of resistance for greater transparency from some faction inside the Pentagon (mainly the US Air Force?) and inside the intelligence community. Despite the progress we have seen these last 3 years, I do not think there is a consensus inside the USG regarding what and how much about UFOs/UAP the public should know. For example, we do not yet know where the US Air Force stands in the question of disclosure. I believe the disclosure process is still fragile. On the other hand, I think disclosure has enough momentum to be almost unstoppable by now. Almost.

So in scenario II, we may see slower progress than in scenario I. Mainly because of different standpoints between factions inside the USG on how to control the official narrative. Standpoints against greater transparency may not necessarily have any nefarious motives. Reasons against disclosure can include a genuine concern over the public's reactions to information that UFOs/UAP are not man made, not from this earth. We know that there is a resistance to study UAPs because of religious beliefs ("UFOs are demonic"). Still, I am inclined to think that those religious beliefs are directed at the phenomena manifested at Skinwalker Ranch rather than at UFOs per se.  

However, there are probably some self-interested reasons against greater transparency. For example, the denial and ridicule of UFOs by the USG (the US Air Force, CIA, etc.) is a historical fact. Obviously, the USG will be reluctant to disclose its cover-up of something essential for the world as the UFO phenomenon.  

The question in scenario II is this: Has enough data on UFOs/UAP (military videos, military witnesses, briefings of senators, etc.) reached the public domain to make further progress very difficult to stop?

Scenario III

In scenario III, the answer to the aforementioned question (Has enough data on UFOs/UAP...?) is a clear "no." This scenario is like the one that Mr Richard Dolan is arguing for in the video above. You can call it pessimistic. But you can also call it realistic. At the present time, I do not think anyone can dismiss Mr Dolan's analysis. 

Even though I am more inclined to think that scenario I (or even scenario II) is the more plausible one, I cannot with certainty argue for or against any of the scenarios presented in this text. It is too early for any certain conclusions. It is tough to predict even a year ahead. So, let us be open to all the scenarios presented here and other scenarios not mentioned in this text until we have more facts and evidence that points more strongly in one direction. 

With that said, what I mainly disagree with Mr Dolan's analysis is what he thinks the USG knows about UFOs/UAP. I believe that the USG's knowledge of the UFO phenomenon is less dramatic than Mr Dolan and others believe. I do not believe the USG has any "off-world vehicles" in its possession. Neither do I believe the USG has communicated with some non-human intelligence nor has had, or has, bodies of non-human intelligence. If there are any "core secrets", I do not think that they are that extraordinary in nature. 

On the other hand, if the core secrets are true, I am inclined to agree with Mr Dolan that the disclosure process can end right now or shortly. 

However, even if true, I think that Mr Dolan's analysis underestimates factors and powers that can counterbalance attempts at a global totalitarian control over people's lives. I think Mr Dolan underestimates the powers in the USG, which want to end the official denial that we are not alone in the universe and that "they" are here. The evidence for any core secrets in the sense of Mr Dolan and others is mostly anecdotal. 

I think there is a sound argument against the notion of the USG (or any government) having in its possession "off-world vehicles". The argument goes: 

Assuming the USG (or any government) has had a crashed UFO in its possession for 5 - 7 decades, it is reasonable to think that our (human) scientists and engineers should by now have made some significant progress with the "alien" technology. If that is true, then the nation that made the most significant progress would dominate the geopolitical scene. No nation is dominating the geopolitical scene. Therefore, neither the USG nor any other government has had, or has, in its possession, "alien" technology. 

Do we really believe that a government with superior technology (for sure to be used to enhance military capabilities) could resist the temptation to "rule them all"? No, that would be incredibly naïve.

Nonetheless, I have to stay open to the possibility of the core secrets being a fact. Mostly because I realize that Mr Dolan (and other researchers) has a vastly wider and deeper knowledge about, for instance, the "Admiral Wilson document" than I have and have connections with individuals I can only dream of. 

To be clear, I do not doubt the authenticity of the Adm. Wilson docs. My problem is the lack of proof for the extraordinary claims ("off-world vehicles", and so on) made in the Adm. Wilson docs. 

The point being with scenario III: If the core secrets are true, then I am afraid that full disclosure (whatever that is and would play out) is something I will probably not experience during my lifetime (35-40 years left, assuming I live until 80 or 85 years old). So, from that perspective, we should not want, wish, or think it is exciting that the core secrets may be true. But what I believe to be true does not make the core secrets false. 

Even if the core secrets are true, is the prospect of further disclosure/greater transparency really so dismal? Perhaps not. As I already mentioned, I do not think we should underestimate powers that oppose too much or unnecessary governmental secrecy. Or powers that oppose totalitarian control. Younger generations will come into positions of political, economic, and legal power and influence. These younger individuals will have other values, beliefs, and perspectives on what a moral society is and how to build a humane society. I cannot see any reasons as to why not the "good" powers can prevail rather than the powers craving for more control, more secrecy, or maintaining the status quo.

And let us not forget the public. You and me. How many restrictions on our freedoms and rights can we accept? How great social and economic inequalities can we stand? If you look at history, there are plenty of examples of ordinary people starting revolutions. Not all revolutions led to any positive changes (in most cases, because there was no "Plan B"), but people eventually will have enough of too much power and control in the hands of a few. 

In other words, disclosure/greater transparency is not lost, even if extraordinary claims such as the core secrets are true. However, if true, the disclosure process will be complicated, utterly slow, with much friction, and protracted over decades. But eventually, I am sure the world will know the truth about the UFO phenomenon. 

Scenario IV

It is probably the most unlikely scenario, but I do not think it should be ruled out completely: The Phenomenon itself discloses its presence on a grand scale to the world. The only factor that would make this scenario plausible is if planet Earth and/or humanity were in an acute situation of destruction or extermination (but the historical records show no support for such intervention). I have speculated about this in a previous text, so I will not say much more about it here. Maybe we are closer to such an acute situation of environmental destruction than we are aware of?  

So, scenario IV is only plausible in a unique and acute situation. If even then. It may very well be the case that the non-human intelligence visiting Earth at the moment does not care about the future of this planet and/or humanity. Or they may not be allowed - under any circumstances - to directly interfere with the evolution of life and death on other planets. Anyhow, it would be a big mistake by humanity to rely on the help of our space neighbours to solve the problems we have created. 

To summarize

I think that the disclosure process/greater official transparency will most likely progress in the way described in scenario I. Scenario II is also a plausible alternative. That is, I think disclosure has enough momentum to continue in a similar nature and speed as it has until now, or even to speed up in the coming 1 to 3 years. At the same time, I do not think disclosure/greater transparency is yet unstoppable. The development of disclosure is still somewhat fragile. 

However, I disagree with Mr Dolan's analysis in the video linked above that the current openness with information on UFOs/UAP is a way for some faction in the USG to control the narrative: "give away some secrets to protect the core secrets" (I am paraphrasing Mr Dolan's main point). I disagree because I do not believe a group of people can fool most of the US Senate for decades. (How do you even pass on the secrecy from one generation to the next? How do you hide the tracks of the enormous infrastructure and energy consumption that these alleged private UFO programs certainly would create?). 

The crucial question in this text has been: what does the USG know about UFOs/UAP? The answer to that question is correlated with how the disclosure process will progress.  

My current belief is that the USG does not know much more about UFOs/UAP than the USG has already acknowledged (that is, what some UFOs are not). If that is true, it would be a good thing for greater official transparency. It means, for instance, that the current openness from the USG is an attempt to get help from the scientific community. The DoD knows it cannot solve the UFO issue without help from the outside. This should indicate that the USG has no "core secrets" to hide.

Rather, the official denial and ridicule of the UFO phenomenon over the decades have been caused by fear of not controlling UFOs/UAP and shame of not being able to protect the American people. The same motivations probably apply to the silence on the UFO issue by other governments. 

The chief obstacle to greater official transparency on the UFO phenomenon is not any core secrets about the USG in possession of "off-world vehicles". The chief obstacle is human psychology (the fear and shame of some high-ranking US officials).

Finally, I cannot argue with certainty for or against any of the scenarios (or the validity or invalidity of the content of the Adm. Wilson docs) described in this text. We have to stay open, vigilant, and critical to the already released information and to the forthcoming information about UFOs/UAP. 

Take care!  

Janne

**Addendum 2020-08-21: Just one or two hours after I published the text above,  Project Unity uploaded a video on YouTube with the title "Disclosure. The Current State of Affairs." I recommend everyone to listen to Jay´s (aka Project Unity) thoughts about where disclosure/ transparency will go from now. I especially agree with Jay´s concluding words: strive to do good in the world and be good to other people. You can listen to Jay´s thoughts on the current state of affairs here.** // Janne