Is past behaviour the best predictor of future behaviour?

The purpose of this post is to look back at UFO history to explore whether "past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour" concerning the forthcoming UAP report by the UAP Task Force (UAPTF). Can the US government's past behaviour regarding the UFO issue (for example, "Project Blue Book") help us predict the content and the outcome of the report by the UAPTF?

Further down, I will explore that question with the help of two declassified National Security Agency documents (see the links at the very end of this post). But first, some background to the purpose of this post.

Background

Most people who have studied the literature on the UFO phenomenon, or subject, know that the current interest in and serious concern over the UFO issue by the US government (USG) is nothing new. Neither is the more serious attention on UFOs/UAP from the mainstream media. One of many examples is the Washington Post article from 19 January 1979. 

Some in the ufo community see the record of how the USG has dealt with the UFO issue in the past (again, think "Project Blue Book" or the "Condon Report") as an almost certain predictor of how current events will end. Others in the ufo community are more optimistic and perhaps, in some cases, naive about how the recent UFO "revival" will evolve ("full Disclosure!"). 

Will the forthcoming report by the UAPTF turn out to be a "Project Blue Book, 2.0", or will its outcome be more desirable from a transparency perspective? In my opinion, that question remains open. At the same time, I believe we have reasons for cautious optimism, which I will expand on in a moment.

Professor Kevin Knuth on why the USS Nimitz "Tic Tac" encounter was not a secret military test

"Kevin Knuth on UFOs, Nimitz / Tic Tac video, and a new kind of Theory of Everything" Published on the YouTube channel Theories of Everything with Curt Jaimungal on April 13, 2021. Duration: 2:30:57.

Kevin Knuth is a Professor of physics at the University of Albany, a former NASA scientist, and the Editor-In-Chief of the Entropy journal. He has a unique Theory of Everything called Influence Theory.

First, I recommend you to look at the links in the video description of this episode on Mr. Jaimungal's YouTube channel. You can find a few of those interesting and useful links to Professor Knuth's research on the UFO phenomenon and work in physics below: 

Papers:

• Estimating Flight Characteristics of Anomalous Unidentified Aerial Vehicles: https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/21/10/939
• An Introduction to Influence Theory: Kinematics and Dynamics: https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.09618

Presentation:

• Knuth's presentation delineating interstellar space travel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXswO... (In the conversation with Mr. Jaimungal, Professor Knuth summarizes his fascinating hypothesis on "nomadic" space travelling civilisations, starting around the 52 min mark).

Also, in the video description of this interview, or conversation, with guest Kevin Knuth, you can find timestamps of what and when topics are covered during the conversation. Roughly speaking, the first half of the 2 hours and 30 minutes is about Professor Knuth's interest in and research of the UFO phenomenon. The second half is about his scientific work and career as a physicist. Even for a non-scientist like myself, the second half is highly interesting and is, as I understand it, relevant to better understand the UFO phenomenon.

Why post this conversation between Mr Jaimungal and Professor Knuth? There are several reasons, but my main reason is that I think what Professor Knuth says about the USS Nimitz "Tic Tac" encounter in 2004 is important to keep in my mind, especially since the recent video release of a "pyramid-shaped" flying object (actually, several objects, if objects at all). In the latter case, we do not have any or very little data on what is going on (some argue that the video has significant data to reveal if you know what to look for, and they may be right). In the former case, Knuth and his colleagues at the Scientific Coalition of UAP Studies (SCU) have analysed and published a paper on (see above: the first link under "Papers").